Stable Continuation Most Likely

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    There is a 70 per cent possibility that the stable continuation of a U.S.-led global recovery will mean modest levels of growth with be maintained with no recessionary dip. That is one of three scenarios set out in in BMO Global Asset Management’s annual ‘Five-Year Outlook’report. The downside scenario, to which the report assigns a 20 per cent probability, considers the negative outcomes of failing monetary and fiscal policies, a stalling in global growth and low economic expansion. This will trigger an already disaffected population, faced with rising unemployment and decreasing savings. It also leads to increased demands for protectionism which impacts global trade. There is a 10 per cent likelihood for the most optimistic scenario which predicts that policymakers around the world are successful in overcoming downward pressures on productivity and unemployment, stimulating economic growth. It also anticipates the positive outcomes of new technology, with low interest rates giving new ventures easy access to capital ‒ providing greater scope for asset-light business models to develop.